False Start? What First-Year Agent Production Predicts About Long-Term Success
By Joshua Lopour and Lowell Boone
TL;DR: First-year performance isn’t the forecast we think it is. New data shows that agents with modest starts often outperform expectations—while some strong starters never gain traction. At least 6 transactions in the first year? The view for the future can be murky.
The Industry Assumption: Start Strong, Stay Strong
The real estate industry often sees an agent’s first-year production as a crystal ball. Close 8–10 deals in year one? You’re golden. Fumble your way through 2 or 3? Maybe this isn’t the career for you.
But is that really true?
We looked at five years of data from a selection of major metropolitan areas and ran a deeper analysis—following recently minted agents with at least a five year career.
To cut through the noise, we looked only at:
Agents whose very first transaction was in 2020
And remained continuously active through 2024
We’re not conflating the data with part-timers, dropouts, or agents who never ramped up. This is a clean 5-year cohort.
The Prediction Problem
In short: First-year transaction volume shows very little correlation with long-term performance—until a surprisingly high threshold is crossed.
Average Career Transactions vs. First-Year Production
As you can see:
There’s little change in long-term productivity trends until agents hit 5+ transactions in year one.
That’s the inflection point where first-year production begins to suggest staying power.
Outcomes by First-Year Volume
Even more telling:
Agents with 1–4 first-year transactions are just as likely to stall as they are to grow,
But for those with 5+ transactions in year one, the odds of consistently strong production begin to rise.
So What Does It All Mean?
Below 5 Transactions, Early Success is a Coin Flip
One strong year doesn’t lock in a strong career. And a slow start doesn’t mean you’re doomed.
Above 5 Transactions, a Pattern Emerges
Only at this level does first-year production begin to correlate with future output.
Coaching Should Focus on Momentum, Not Just Metrics
Support systems that reward growth over raw numbers will better serve both agents and brokerages.
Stop Reading the Wrong Tea Leaves
The industry has overemphasized the predictive power of the first year. It’s time we rethink the metrics we use to judge potential—and invest more in the trajectory of an agent’s early career than the totals they put up in year one.
Because in real estate, the real work—and the real success—often starts in year two.
